Arafat V. Abbas: The Battle For Power?
By: Jo-ana D'Balcazar

The battle for power within the Palestinian Authority is leading to an unwelcome direction for the purpose of the U.S.-led peace efforts, known as the Roadmap. The question is, who is fooling whom? One of the conditions of the U.S. to renew peace negotiations was the establishment of a reliable leader within the Palestinian Authority. This was accomplished by installing Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, known as Abu Mazen. Yet, despite pompous world acclaim that, supposedly, now with Yasser Arafat out of the peace negotiations, the Arab-Israeli conflict was going to be solved.
Unfortunately, it turned out as just smoke and mirrors. Abbas has failed to end more than 33 months of violence despite the three-month truce of the trio of terrorist groups (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Al Fatah). Arafat might not be leading the front line negotiations, but behind the scenes, he is leading the whole game while using Abbas as a front. Neither the Palestinian Authority, nor the United Nations, nor the European Union is effectively supporting the eradication of terrorism against Israel.
What about the U.S.? Fine, thank you. Watching from behind the scenes, not keeping a consistent policy and not firmly standing by its ally: Israel. Who is moving the chess pieces of the peace negotiations: Terrorism or the Quartet?
First, PM Abbas threatened to resign in June when he failed to prevent violence in Israel, alleging that Arafat was boycotting his efforts to achieve a ceasefire, the first requirement of the Roadmap that aim to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict by establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel by 2005. But, how can a Palestinian state peacefully exist alongside Israel, while the Palestinian Authority still keeps an academic curriculum showing the establishment of a Palestinian state with no Israel alongside?
Abbas previously accused PA Chairman Arafat of actually inciting Hamas to increase their attacks against Israel. Now, on Monday, July 14, Abbas declared and end to the rift with Arafat. Why do Abbas want to resign? Simply, the fact is that Abbas, just last week threatened to quit not only as Prime Minister but also from a top policy-making committee led by none other than Arafat's Fatah movement.
The point is that Abbas is under extreme pressure from the Palestinians, the Americans, and Israelis to accomplish the basic requirement of the Roadmap: stop the violence. Abbas is considered by some of his colleagues as being too soft when it deals with peacemaking, while seeing Arafat as the only strong leader. On the other hand, PM Sharon accused Arafat of undermining Abbas' role.
Reportedly, some Palestinian officials declared that Arafat's goal was to weaken Abbas' role as Prime Minister undermining the efforts of the Roadmap. However, Saeb Erekat, the former chief Palestinian negotiator, believes that indeed all problems had been resolved and Arafat now "gave his full support to Abu Mazen."
The problem is that peace efforts are on hold over a disagreement of how many Palestinian prisoners should be released by Israel. Many Palestinian politicians criticize Abbas, for not persuading Israel to liberate thousands of prisoners instead of only a few hundred. Consequently, Abbas suspended a meeting scheduled for last Wednesday as a protest against Israel's handling of the prisoners. Israel agreed to release just 350 of the estimated 6,000 Arab-Palestinians. Some argue that the prisoners issue is the biggest obstacle for the progress of the Roadmap, but the real biggest obstacle is to leave free all terrorists that still pursue the destruction of Israel.
The fact is that Israel can not liberate thousands of prisoners because it will endanger its national security and slow the peace process, as many of those prisoners are terrorists not common civilians. Can you imagine if Israel liberates all 6,000 prisoners including known terrorists and afterwards the Palestinian Authority call off the peace negotiations?
For instance, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, two recognized terrorist groups by the U.S., threatened on July 13 to end their truce if the Palestinian Authority attempted to confiscate their weapons. This is the real obstacle to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Why not eradicate the terrorist infrastructures and confiscate their weapons? Suddenly, the U.S. sees these two groups as the untouchables, while keeping them in their annual report of terrorist groups. Yet, the U.S. is pursuing the eradication of Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaeda. How can the war against terrorism succeed when there is inconsistency of policies?
According to Sharon's declarations to the Norwegian daily Aftenposten in an interview published on Sunday, "There is no secret that Yasser Arafat does what he can to work against Mahmud Abbas. And Europe keeps contacts with Arafat, visits him, calls him, and prevents by this activity a solution of the problems here in the Middle East." Although, ironically, Abbas knows that the U.S. does not want to deal with Arafat because he is considered responsible for not stopping terrorism effectively, Abbas still asks Israel to let Arafat moves freely.
This is the reason why many U.S. congressional representatives support the Arafat Accountability Act to have Arafat and the Palestinian Authority accountable for sponsoring and promoting terrorism. On the other hand, Israel keeps calling for Arafat's further isolation. A major blow for Israel, however, was the refusal of the British to cut ties with Arafat during PM Ariel Sharon's visit to Britain.
One favorable point for Israel, is that Italy, that has openly supported Israel, heads the current presidency of the European Union. Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi repeatedly proclaims his support and friendship to Israel, even refusing to talk with Arafat during his trip to Israel. However, things will not be easier for Berlusconi as the EU tends to support more the Arab-Palestinians, including giving millions for humanitarian aid that mostly never reach the true innocent civilians but went mainly to enrich Arafat's personal wealth and the Palestinian Authority. Arafat is not an innocent bystander but an active participant in the growing violence, just as Hamas. Will homicide bombings stop permanently?
Absolutely, the Roadmap designed by the Quartet (U.S.A., European Union, United Nations, and Russia) needs an overhaul. Is the dispute between PM Abbas and Arafat really over or are we in for an opera show with the intrigue of a Greek drama?
Will Abbas pledge loyalty for real peace or to Arafat and his terrorist groups of al Fatah, Al Aksa Martyr Brigades and Tanzim? Will Abbas succumb to Hamas? The bottom line is that it appears that Arafat is a master of puppeteering, and Abbas just appears to be his puppet. In the battle for power within the Palestinian Authority, only Abbas can answer whether he will resign or not.
Jo-ana D'Balcazar, M.A., Political Analyst in International Relations, specializes in the European Union and the Middle East Crisis. Comments to:politics2see@hotmail.com